China and Russia-Ukraine mediation

China attempted to downplay expectations from its first serious attempt at mediation, emphasizing that “there is no panacea for defusing the crisis."

Beijing is trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe, hedging against an unlikely but possible Russian military collapse. 

Li Hui, a former ambassador to Moscow, will visit Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany, and Russia to discuss a political settlement to the war.

China is finally taking concrete steps toward mediation, but its “pro-Russia neutrality” remains very much in evidence.

Anyone seriously considering China playing a role as peacemaker in Ukraine needs to wrestle with its constant and overt declarations of “unswerving” partnership with Russia.

Understanding the meaning of the dueling trips requires a closer look at the larger context of China and Japan’s recent international diplomatic efforts. 

China has been sending strong signals that it plans to use its economic clout to bring Ukraine to the bargaining table – to Russia’s benefit. 

Not lacking for self-confidence, Xi’s decision to insert himself into Russia-Ukraine mediation presents outsized opportunities and risks for Beijing, especially in Europe.